A comforting theory-- Strauss and Howe

Musician Ralph Covert has been entertaining us on Facebook during the stay at home era.  Ralph finds comfort in the cyclic nature of history and at the end of music shows has sometimes been talking about Strauss and Howe's theory of generations.

Who are Strauss and Howe?  William Strauss was a founder of the Capital Steps comedy troupe and an influential Democrat.  Neil Howe is a consultant and budget focused political moderate advisor to the Concord Coalition.  I first heard of them here:

http://www.booknotes.org/Watch/17548-1/William-Strauss

Their writing, starting in 1991, has been on the subject of generations.  Strauss and Howe define four types of generations that exist in US history since the 1580s.  There is the generation that won World War II that some call "the greatest generation" which was in charge all of their lives.  Then, there was a "silent generation."  The oldest amongst us now are of this silent generation that did as told and were never in charge.  After that, we had the "Boomers," a large generation that tended to define themselves by what they oppose-- anti-Vietnam war or anti-hippie or perhaps anti-GI generation or anti-expert.  Then, you come to my generation (and Ralph's)-- the 13th per Strauss and Howe or Generation X per Douglas Coupland.  Gen X is the Daria group who stereotypically learns things quite deeply, but tends to be too cynical to act on what we know.  Generation X was the first cohort to identify as nerds.  Like the Lost generation, born 1880-1900, we are not ultra-greedy and are therefore mostly loved.

It would mostly be Gen Xers who read and understand generational theory, as Boomers find "contradictions" and argue it to death.    I believe generational theory has a lot to teach, though it is not highly rigorous or even necessarily predictive.  It is sociology rather than physics.  The foundation of thousands of pages is basically the insight that as one generation dies another is born which populates societal roles in a similar fashion to the generation gone.

The four types of generations repeat and alternate between dominant and less dominant. Millennials will likely be in charge soon, as they fill the same spot in the cycle as the greatest generation did.  Boomers and the World War II generation have been in charge most of the time since 1940.  Gen X (less dominant) got one president, whom most of us love, Barack Obama.  Millennials are likely to take over in 2024 or 2028 after the divided Boomers burn out and fade away.  Note: though millennials may seem to be divisive, generational views are fairly uniform and unlike the Boomers, they are united among themselves.  Unity brings them strength.  The theory suggests that crisis causes the unity and people have speculated since 911 as to what the unifying crisis might be.

Generational theory is not surprised by the presidential candidates-- both aging Boomers.  The dominant generations get most of the presidents. 

Birth dates of the generations are defined slightly differently depending on who is defining, but the Strauss and Howe generations are roughly every 20 years and start roughly at 1900 (greatest generation), 1920 (silent), 1940 (boomers), 1960 (X), 1980 (millennials) and 2000 (zoomers or homeland or gen z).  The cusps of generational change can be argued, but most people know where they fit.  Some say Boomers were born in 1964 and perhaps you are a Boomer born in 1964.

Why is this theory comforting?

As a member of Gen X, I knew my grandparents (greatest gen) well and was impressed by their unity, outlook and contributions.  My parents (Silent) had less to offer as a generation.  They mostly deferred to elders.  Per  the theory of Strauss and Howe, in the year 2020, young adults, those currently age 20 to 40, are in the position to create the most change.  We hope it's for the best.  We are in an 80 to 100 year cycle.  The opportunity for a younger generation (millennials) to create change is at the peak of this 80 to 100 year cycle.

Big things ahead?

May the era of the bickering Boomers please die soon.  The great humorist, Carl Reiner (friend of Norman Lear), is no longer around to make fun of our nation's fifty year long "All in the Family" episode.  Born in the early 1920's, Reiner set a high bar of comedy and we'll include him in that greatest generation that we assume the millennials will start updating post haste.

While we believe racism and perhaps Trumpism is heading to the dustbin of history, it is not clear which direction Millennials will take us.  The greatest generation brought us JFK, then Nixon, Ford and Reagan.  While each president was favored by the united greatest generation, most had issues with at least Nixon's criminal acts.

Gen Xers need to get involved in political discussions if we want things to turn out right.  Despite the perception of us being slackers, it is us that know the footnotes that can redefine fragile consensus.  Democracy works best as a bottom up process.  We need to start going to the meetings or who knows what the kids will think up next?  The greatest generation fought and won WWII, but it was the Lost Generation, people like Eisenhower, who brought the strategy.

Ralph sees Strauss and Howe as a comforting theory.  To me, it is a call to action.