Tuesday, April 23, 2024

Crossing New Bridges: Decision Matrices

I am honored to be featured speaker at an AGC St. Paul networking event, Thursday, May 16, 5 pm. 260 Wentworth Ave E,, Evolve Workplace, West St Paul, MN 55118 At this event, I will tell my signature story in a TED type speech.

My message is that our biggest life decisions typically occur when we are burdened with the most stress.  Stress can make us irrational.  Therefore, it is important to be deliberate and analytical before making a major life decision.  We don't want to be second guessing our biggest decisions.  We need to be comfortable with both our decision and our decision making process, so that we are not tempted to finger point ourselves or others in the years to come.

------------------------------------------------------------------------

Each day, I cross the San Raphael Bridge into Marin County.  The bridge is not as beautiful as Golden Gate, but the San Francisco Bay has beauty and mountains are ahead.  I am on the way to work at my career of sixteen years.  The career matches my identity.  Product development engineer.  My biggest triumphs are from this career.  I like starting up products.  My company used to do a lot more of this.  There are no big products planned, so far as I can tell, and I've been looking hard to find something.  I feel slightly dizzy from acrophobia.  I hate crossing this bridge. If I keep crossing it, I likely will continue with my career for decades more.   I’ve given serious thought.  I may decide in the next month or two to walk away from my career.

A year earlier, family news is page one of the Des Moines Register.  My step-mother, age 69, is murdered by a son-in-law.  Her daughter is murdered by the husband who kills himself.  I am at my childhood home in West Des Moines with my father, four orphans and assorted family.  My responsibilities are minimal, nonetheless, I feel important here.  I function well in crisis.  I help keep the ship relatively level.

A lot goes through my head.  Should I adopt an orphan?  It sounds ill-conceived for a single man in his late 30's to adopt an 11 year old. But, I am getting more satisfaction from being present for parent-less children than I am getting from my career.  Should I take over the business that the murdered people had?  It might make sense except I have none of the business skills.   People under stress have heightened insights and eureka moments, but not every idea is great.

There is a psychological test, the Holmes Rahe Stress Indicator.  Based on the murders of close relatives, our stress level is in the red zone per criteria and we are at increased risk of illness.  My father and other members of my family manifest this stress visibly.  I hear conspiracies conjured from wild emotions.

I seek good advice.  An attorney provides me with professional opinions about helping the orphans.  The plan that he relays makes more sense than me being a guardian.  A counsellor for families of murder victims tells me not to make any big decisions for the next six to twelve months.  I respect that insight also.

You in the audience are under stress. Last month I met some of you and learned how one of you did your best art when your mother was dying.  The death of a spouse- 100 points on the Holmes Rahe scale- affects one of you.  My father never got beyond that.  A wedding is planned.  Happy news.  Also, stressful.   A business to make financially viable.  Careers to navigate.  A promotion is a source of stress!  People in this room face stress like I did.  Trauma affects all of us.

When under stress, there three rules to follow.  

1) Seek and follow the professional advice of dispassionate experts-- attorneys, financial planners, therapists.  

2) Don't make big decisions that you might later regret like the bankrupt lottery winners we hear about.  

3) Use decision matrices to assure we listen to the less emotional parts of our brains.

My expertise at that time was to develop products.  One of the tools I used was decision matrices, sometimes referred to by quality engineers as quality functional deployment.  I am not going to talk about product development today.  I am going to talk about the use of this business tool for making life decisions.  In business, we talk about products worth millions of dollars, and perhaps more zeros than six.  Major life decisions have comparable value to the biggest business decisions we face.

Math.  We need to use our math brains.  Here is the tool I have used for my biggest life decisions.

To start we define "considerations".  What is important to us?  How do I measure life success?  Is it family, health, finance, social?  That might be your list.  My list is something like that. 

If you are stuck, start with my list.  Also ask, "Who are your role models and what criteria would they use to measure life success."  Include scuba diving if that’s what makes your life worthwhile.

The other step is to define your dreams.  What options are you considering?  Where?  How? 

Go back to school?  Find a new job?  Travel?  In specific terms, what are your dreams?

Then, assign points.  Go Back to School.  How does that rate from the perspective of "family," 0-10?  How does "health" rate, 0-10, if you go back to school?  Finance.  How does that rate 0-10?

When you rate, this will beg questions.  Can I afford going back to school, 0-10?  Will going back to school get me a well-paying job, 0-10?  Is shorter term or longer term finance more important?  Maybe, longer term gets weighted 60% and short-term 40%.  Maybe, you have no direct path to a certain dream.

The first run through of your matrix is not the right answer.  Keep going until the math and the logic behind the math looks right to you.  If you don't like the way the exercise turned out, adjust the parameters until you like the way it turned out.  Your emotions still get to vote.

Then wait a week and if you like what you did last week, you might have a plan for yourself. 

The matrices are just one part of three, though.  Listen to objective professional people such as attorneys and psychological help, as might be appropriate.  Let the six months or a year pass before taking a major leap you might later regret.  Most people have wedding engagements that long.  Give yourself the same time to adjust.  Test the assumptions of your matrix by learning more.  For example, learn the strategic plan of the company you plan to leave or to join.  Finally, Part 3, redo the math of the decision matrix.

You want to make your major life decisions with as much thought as a company would use for major business decisions.

Did I keep crossing the San Raphael Bridge?

I confirmed my fears about the changes in my company, then one day didn’t cross the San Raphael bridge.  Instead, I joined a writers group, volunteered at a radio station where I did a talk show, went to career fairs, joined social groups, became active in professional societies, networked, volunteered various places, became a Toastmasters leader.

I had expected to find product development opportunities but was intimidated by biotech, Google and the state of technology in the Bay Area.  Financially, I was doing okay.  I had always saved more than I spent.  Stocks went up.  Housing prices went up.  I had cash flow and retirement money.  But, I wasn’t confident about this sustaining.  I downsized.  I travelled.  I settled down.

I have been married 17 years to a talented woman that I have known since even before the family murder tragedy.  I am leading an after school group at my eight year old daughter’s school.  I am telling you my story of crossing a bridge.  Life is good.  My new identity is as a father and family member.

All of us face stress which brings out emotions and sometimes insight. We have the tools and resources to make forward thinking decisions.  When we use a solid, careful, well thought out analytical decision making process before making our big leaps, there is no regret.


Examples of Design Matrices:

For Product Development--

A Draft that doesn't match reality--

A Draft with weightings to better match reality--



A point in my life where I had lots of options--

A place to start--