A comforting theory-- Strauss and Howe

Musician Ralph Covert has been entertaining us on Facebook during the stay at home era.  Ralph finds comfort in the cyclic nature of history and at the end of music shows has sometimes been talking about Strauss and Howe's theory of generations.

Who are Strauss and Howe?  William Strauss was a founder of the Capital Steps comedy troupe and an influential Democrat.  Neil Howe is a consultant and budget focused political moderate advisor to the Concord Coalition.  I first heard of them here:

http://www.booknotes.org/Watch/17548-1/William-Strauss

Their writing, starting in 1991, has been on the subject of generations.  Strauss and Howe define four types of generations that exist in US history since the 1580s.  There is the generation that won World War II that some call "the greatest generation" which was in charge all of their lives.  Then, there was a "silent generation."  The oldest amongst us now are of this silent generation that did as told and were never in charge.  After that, we had the "Boomers," a large generation that tended to define themselves by what they oppose-- anti-Vietnam war or anti-hippie or perhaps anti-GI generation or anti-expert.  Then, you come to my generation (and Ralph's)-- the 13th per Strauss and Howe or Generation X per Douglas Coupland.  Gen X is the Daria group who stereotypically learns things quite deeply, but tends to be too cynical to act on what we know.  Generation X was the first cohort to identify as nerds.  Like the Lost generation, born 1880-1900, we are not ultra-greedy and are therefore mostly loved.

It would mostly be Gen Xers who read and understand generational theory, as Boomers find "contradictions" and argue it to death.    I believe generational theory has a lot to teach, though it is not highly rigorous or even necessarily predictive.  It is sociology rather than physics.  The foundation of thousands of pages is basically the insight that as one generation dies another is born which populates societal roles in a similar fashion to the generation gone.

The four types of generations repeat and alternate between dominant and less dominant. Millennials will likely be in charge soon, as they fill the same spot in the cycle as the greatest generation did.  Boomers and the World War II generation have been in charge most of the time since 1940.  Gen X (less dominant) got one president, whom most of us love, Barack Obama.  Millennials are likely to take over in 2024 or 2028 after the divided Boomers burn out and fade away.  Note: though millennials may seem to be divisive, generational views are fairly uniform and unlike the Boomers, they are united among themselves.  Unity brings them strength.  The theory suggests that crisis causes the unity and people have speculated since 911 as to what the unifying crisis might be.

Generational theory is not surprised by the presidential candidates-- both aging Boomers.  The dominant generations get most of the presidents. 

Birth dates of the generations are defined slightly differently depending on who is defining, but the Strauss and Howe generations are roughly every 20 years and start roughly at 1900 (greatest generation), 1920 (silent), 1940 (boomers), 1960 (X), 1980 (millennials) and 2000 (zoomers or homeland or gen z).  The cusps of generational change can be argued, but most people know where they fit.  Some say Boomers were born in 1964 and perhaps you are a Boomer born in 1964.

Why is this theory comforting?

As a member of Gen X, I knew my grandparents (greatest gen) well and was impressed by their unity, outlook and contributions.  My parents (Silent) had less to offer as a generation.  They mostly deferred to elders.  Per  the theory of Strauss and Howe, in the year 2020, young adults, those currently age 20 to 40, are in the position to create the most change.  We hope it's for the best.  We are in an 80 to 100 year cycle.  The opportunity for a younger generation (millennials) to create change is at the peak of this 80 to 100 year cycle.

Big things ahead?

May the era of the bickering Boomers please die soon.  The great humorist, Carl Reiner (friend of Norman Lear), is no longer around to make fun of our nation's fifty year long "All in the Family" episode.  Born in the early 1920's, Reiner set a high bar of comedy and we'll include him in that greatest generation that we assume the millennials will start updating post haste.

While we believe racism and perhaps Trumpism is heading to the dustbin of history, it is not clear which direction Millennials will take us.  The greatest generation brought us JFK, then Nixon, Ford and Reagan.  While each president was favored by the united greatest generation, most had issues with at least Nixon's criminal acts.

Gen Xers need to get involved in political discussions if we want things to turn out right.  Despite the perception of us being slackers, it is us that know the footnotes that can redefine fragile consensus.  Democracy works best as a bottom up process.  We need to start going to the meetings or who knows what the kids will think up next?  The greatest generation fought and won WWII, but it was the Lost Generation, people like Eisenhower, who brought the strategy.

Ralph sees Strauss and Howe as a comforting theory.  To me, it is a call to action.

Driving Around Music

My first job was in Knoxville, Iowa.  Knoxville is famous for sprint car races.  I lived more than one mile away from the racetrack, but races came in loud and clear most weekend nights. I went with a work group once.  There were dedicated fans.  It was fun as a one off event.  It wasn't my thing.

The freight train was within the block and the volume was a notch higher.  It went by at midnight and five a.m.   This "quiet" Iowa town was the loudest place I have lived.

There was a newsstand shop a few blocks from my house.  There was a movie theater a block further.  I was in luck if I wanted a magazine or was interested in "Back to the Future."    There were also bars with occasional workplace happy hours.  I didn't spend a lot of time in town outside of my place, the second floor of a house that had been revamped as an apartment.  Instead, I drove in my van which held a CD player, refrigerator, sleeping bag and telescope.  It was a mostly solitary time for me.

I would drive to Des Moines to the computer store or the "art" theater or the record store or to see a band.  I would drive near Cambridge and look through their telescopes and mine-- I saw Halley's Comet in 1986.   Those were my typical weekend activities.  Often, there was a family event, as well. Parents were an hour away.

Driving the roads of Iowa required a soundtrack.  My van had a CD player and I would listen to XTC or They Might Be Giants or Scruffy the Cat or Talking Heads.  Sometimes, in a Sunday morning mood, I'd listen to Shut Up and Play Your Guitar by Frank Zappa.  People's Music (record store) in Des Moines introduced me to the wave of bands that included Husker Du, The Replacements and Young Fresh Fellows as "The Breakfast Club" era faded away.

I am not sure how many GBs of CDs I have, but my compact disc collection is certainly much less than the 1024 GB SD cards (1 TB) that were available for $40, if you looked hard.  I spent all day ripping the A's and B's and only got to 11 GB so I know it is all going to fit.

I understand that you can buy Google subscriptions theoretically to all released music.  Spotify or Pandora is supposed to be able to figure out what I like.  (Mid-90's, midwestern Indy record store is the closest thing to the category of my CD collection.)  But, so much of what I have is something I heard once and liked.  Something I bought at a show.  Something Tom showed me at No Name.  Maybe, something from People's.  Possibly something I remember from KALX.  Of this TB I am working to fill by burning every CD I own, the amazing thing is how much I still like and/or fondly remember.

Driving around Minnesota in the COVID era feels much the same as Iowa then, just less lonely with the wife and child.  The van had CD and cassette.  The car has SD and CD.  Eight hours of Ralph's World, ten LP sides of Dr. Demento and lots of Danny Elfman entertain my child.  (She would prefer the soundtrack to Nightmare Before Christmas over and over on repeat.)  The Yep Rock catalog from the last couple of years, the Bert Records catalog and some of my other favorites entertain me.  Beach Boys, INXS and Kinks keep my wife happy.  (That's with less than 128 GB.)  Properly mixed, we all stay entertained.  128 GB is itself a substantial chunk of music.  Maybe, all we have fits there too.  Possibly, the100 hours of Bob Dylan's Theme Time Radio still fits.

Soon my car will be able to play The Everything that the Man Had.  Driving around Minnesota, listening to the music, looking at the stars and hearing bird stories and the occasional live music Facebook performance is a lifestyle.  Have you heard of Comet Neowise? I'd rather also travel the globe and see live music.  1024 GBs of recorded music should keep me sane, though.  

Much less was keeping me sane in noisy Knoxville.  

to do

Those shelves in the garage where you empty the content of your car.  They've piled up.  There's not much room next to the car door.

Those CDs you were going to rip onto your TB SD card and then put in boxes.  The shelves are still full.

The grass.  It needs mowing.

The electric cooler for the car,  what happened to that?  Is it under that stack of stuff in the garage?

You were going to hike through state parks.  Right?

Harry Potter.  Were you going to read it to a child?

The book.  Were you going to start writing a book?

That special celebration where you prepare everything in advance.  Are you ready?

The floor needs mopping.

That box that you found in the garage containing papers and writing from your grandmother, do you have any plans for it?

There are clothes to fold.

The project the little girl wanted to start?

There was a Toastmasters project you were going to start?

Did you get those new shelves for the garage you started to clean?

----

Covid-19 has kept us home a lot more.  Many of us have projects we have been planning for days, weeks, months and more than a decade.

There were items on the shelf of the garage from 2006.  There were even items left there from previous owners.  Also, there was bird seed that the varmints got into.  It looks a lot better to see everything in bins.

Have you started work on any of those projects you were going to do when you got around to it?

Good for you!

Time is a luxury I seldom considered as I planned my next trip.  I sometimes thought back to elementary school and the mixed up files of Mrs. Basil Frankweiler, but organizational efforts were postponed.  Now, that trips are postponed, it's time!

Surgical Masks Next to the Gum

Everyone wears masks now.  Are they the right masks?  As masks are not a replacement for distancing, one could argue it shouldn't matter.  Don't make people feel confident they can interact with others safely as they probably can not.  A better mask is still not a totally safe mask.  However, as a product developer, I want people to have the better masks.

Social media talks about N95 respirators for all.  I read about fitting requirements.  I imagine the variety of mask sizes that would be required at schools.  The idea that we should make ourselves as safe as possible from the virus resonates, but is a complex solution the right approach for non-medical settings and untrained people?

The information I find suggests regular surgical masks give similar safety from respiratory viruses compared to N95 masks.  This scientific study included thousands of test subjects.

What surgeons use to prevent infections in their patients may still not be perfect.  However, this is not a new problem requiring new technology.  Well developed technology is available for sale that has been scaled up as a product that can go for $0.10 to $0.15.  The surgical mask is a mature product.

Surgical masks are made of nonwoven polypropylene fibers melt bonded together.  They are breathable while restricting the mobility of small particles.

As a past product developer, I know about disposable diapers.  In addition to non-wovens similar to what is in surgical masks, disposable diapers also include the technology to contain viruses via hydrophilic and hydrophobic layers.

I think about wet wipes or dried out wet wipes.  They might also provide a barrier.

I'm seeing hints that creative people are  marketing anti-viral masks.   I can't imagine anything much more exciting to work on short of a vaccine.  One might hope that viral barriers can be improved, though gimmick marketing is the more likely scenario.

But, surgical masks exist. If much higher volumes of surgical masks are needed based on potential shortages, then new equipment next to the diaper factory can make more surgical masks.   You'd think capitalism would cause this to happen.  Maybe, government pushing is needed.

Surgical masks are designed to prevent virus spread.  Regular people should be using surgical masks when they grocery shop given the Covid-19 threat.  Once supply is robust, surgical masks should be sold at every checkout next the gum.

If America is like Japan and we start to see a culture of mask wearing politeness-- to prevent the infection of others-- then the market doesn't disappear if the virus goes away.  Perhaps, that is an overly optimistic thought.  Nonetheless, crises ranging from World War II to 9/11 have tended to build societal cohesiveness, and bring us together.  These crises also tend to launch the next fads and trends.