The past, the present and the future-- what's the difference? The activities of people stay similar. One answer of what changes, not original to me, is this-- "the percentages."
Who would have thought that there would be lessons from the 1918-19 flu pandemic in the year, 2020? Yet, social distancing lessons from then apply now. Some cities reopened too quickly and had second death waves. This is already starting to happen in 2020. The past has relevance. People walked around with masks 100 years ago, as they are now.
Where will we spend the rest of our lives? The rest of our lives will be spent in the future. The future seems very important. What do we know about it? Will there be masks?
We know the past had kings, plagues and brutality. Some look back nostalgically or naively and imagine experiencing wealth, nobility and the countryside without care. It is clear most of us would not relish the harsh realities most experienced. (My great grandmother shucked dozens of bushels of corn each season, while in her 80s, and spoke of it without complaining!) People were the same then, just more toughened up, so perhaps we would adapt. But, let's choose not to tolerate kings, plagues and brutality.
We can't extrapolate the future from a short view of history. Scary books in the 1960s were written about overpopulation. Predictions of starving masses have not come true. (Rather, the cause of starvation these days is war.) There is no reason to assume food supply will not keep up with population trends, nor should we assume that whatever we are eating doesn't taste better than our spaghetti. We've had one major natural pandemic in my lifetime, so we shouldn't expect terrible natural viruses all of the time, either. Rather, our recent experience should prepare us better for the next bug. Scientific progress has always muted Thomas Malthus’ worries.
War has ravaged. We might experience it firsthand and up close. This is relatively likely, even if we never see military service. This was a lesson of 9-11. This is also a lesson if virus warfare is ever used. Nukes still exist. Globalization is currently badmouthed, but it is still our best defense from war. Thriving countries choose not to wall themselves away. It portends bad news if we do.
If we think shopping weekly at Costco with a mask is “dystopian”, we might not do well at handling what many countries deal with right now or in the recent past. Read up on the Democratic Republic of Congo for a look at what is possible. Violent war rape is common. That part of the world may seem far away, but the world is close. I know about DRC mostly from local refugee neighbors, not from what is in the newspaper. Consider also Nazi practice of 75 years ago if one relates to a Caucasian example of torture and death. Just as with infectious disease, if we stamp out the worst brutality, no matter where, and eradicate it from the world, the world becomes a better place. Our struggle, even if this is a pandemic and a depression, does not seem too bad by global or historical standards.
Optimism suggests to us the probability of great prosperity and wealth. Our smartphones, such as what I type in right now, would fit nicely into the original Star Trek future. The robot at the Microsoft store is functional enough. Google Home plays internet radio via voice command making that wonderful, special radio I was given ten years ago seem obsolete. AI possibilities go far beyond chess playing. 3D printers are at every high school and might actually be useful at some point for ordinary day to day items. The video calls we could have been doing for twenty years just now seem vitally important. It may seem like nothing happens, but look!, my watch knows how many steps I took. The trend to more computerized tech isn't going to stop. Some imagine merging themselves with AI into “the singularity.” (I used to regularly interact with these people. I wonder how their ideas have changed in the past 15 years.)
Unlimited energy would be a breakthrough that changes the world. There have been possibilities for decades, such as fusion. Forget climate change as an apocalyptic scenario if energy becomes free. Just pull the excess CO2 out of the air by machine. Travel becomes essentially free. It could happen in our lifetimes. It might not, also. Probably not.
What about masks? They will likely survive. In Asia people wear masks regularly to prevent their colds (or flu, or coronavirus) from spreading, and have been doing so since 1918. It is just common courtesy if one thinks about it. (You should be wearing a mask now, by the way*.)
How does one cope with the future? Understand the past and the present and make educated guesses about what may increase. The activities are pretty much the same. The difference is the percentages.
Who would have thought that there would be lessons from the 1918-19 flu pandemic in the year, 2020? Yet, social distancing lessons from then apply now. Some cities reopened too quickly and had second death waves. This is already starting to happen in 2020. The past has relevance. People walked around with masks 100 years ago, as they are now.
Where will we spend the rest of our lives? The rest of our lives will be spent in the future. The future seems very important. What do we know about it? Will there be masks?
We know the past had kings, plagues and brutality. Some look back nostalgically or naively and imagine experiencing wealth, nobility and the countryside without care. It is clear most of us would not relish the harsh realities most experienced. (My great grandmother shucked dozens of bushels of corn each season, while in her 80s, and spoke of it without complaining!) People were the same then, just more toughened up, so perhaps we would adapt. But, let's choose not to tolerate kings, plagues and brutality.
We can't extrapolate the future from a short view of history. Scary books in the 1960s were written about overpopulation. Predictions of starving masses have not come true. (Rather, the cause of starvation these days is war.) There is no reason to assume food supply will not keep up with population trends, nor should we assume that whatever we are eating doesn't taste better than our spaghetti. We've had one major natural pandemic in my lifetime, so we shouldn't expect terrible natural viruses all of the time, either. Rather, our recent experience should prepare us better for the next bug. Scientific progress has always muted Thomas Malthus’ worries.
War has ravaged. We might experience it firsthand and up close. This is relatively likely, even if we never see military service. This was a lesson of 9-11. This is also a lesson if virus warfare is ever used. Nukes still exist. Globalization is currently badmouthed, but it is still our best defense from war. Thriving countries choose not to wall themselves away. It portends bad news if we do.
If we think shopping weekly at Costco with a mask is “dystopian”, we might not do well at handling what many countries deal with right now or in the recent past. Read up on the Democratic Republic of Congo for a look at what is possible. Violent war rape is common. That part of the world may seem far away, but the world is close. I know about DRC mostly from local refugee neighbors, not from what is in the newspaper. Consider also Nazi practice of 75 years ago if one relates to a Caucasian example of torture and death. Just as with infectious disease, if we stamp out the worst brutality, no matter where, and eradicate it from the world, the world becomes a better place. Our struggle, even if this is a pandemic and a depression, does not seem too bad by global or historical standards.
Optimism suggests to us the probability of great prosperity and wealth. Our smartphones, such as what I type in right now, would fit nicely into the original Star Trek future. The robot at the Microsoft store is functional enough. Google Home plays internet radio via voice command making that wonderful, special radio I was given ten years ago seem obsolete. AI possibilities go far beyond chess playing. 3D printers are at every high school and might actually be useful at some point for ordinary day to day items. The video calls we could have been doing for twenty years just now seem vitally important. It may seem like nothing happens, but look!, my watch knows how many steps I took. The trend to more computerized tech isn't going to stop. Some imagine merging themselves with AI into “the singularity.” (I used to regularly interact with these people. I wonder how their ideas have changed in the past 15 years.)
Unlimited energy would be a breakthrough that changes the world. There have been possibilities for decades, such as fusion. Forget climate change as an apocalyptic scenario if energy becomes free. Just pull the excess CO2 out of the air by machine. Travel becomes essentially free. It could happen in our lifetimes. It might not, also. Probably not.
What about masks? They will likely survive. In Asia people wear masks regularly to prevent their colds (or flu, or coronavirus) from spreading, and have been doing so since 1918. It is just common courtesy if one thinks about it. (You should be wearing a mask now, by the way*.)
How does one cope with the future? Understand the past and the present and make educated guesses about what may increase. The activities are pretty much the same. The difference is the percentages.
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